Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
'And if the United States, at that time, perceives India to have welched on the deal, not been our friend, when we did so much to make it a friend, that's trouble.'
After recording positive growth for two months in a row, India's exports dipped marginally by 0.25 per cent to $27.67 billion in February and trade deficit widened to $12.88 billion, according to preliminary data released by the government on Tuesday. Imports grew 6.98 per cent to $40.55 billion during the month, the data showed. The trade deficit stood at $10.16 billion in February 2020. Exports during April-February 2020-21 were $255.92 billion, compared with $291.87 billion during the same period of last year, exhibiting a negative growth of 12.32 per cent.
'The Indian government is better prepared this time and has reached out to all contenders and not putting all eggs in one basket.'
A healthy growth in India's services segments has helped the country's total exports and imports of goods and services to cross the $800 billion mark during the first half of 2023, despite a slowdown in global demand, think tank GTRI said in a report on Monday. According to the analysis of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), exports of goods and services rose by 1.5 per cent to $385.4 billion during January-June this year, as against $379.5 billion in January-June 2022. Imports, however, dipped by 5.9 per cent to $415.5 billion during the six months of this year, as against $441.7 billion in January-June 2022.
Immediately on its return from the July 4th holiday recess, an angry Republican dominated US House of Representatives has lashed out against the Obama administration for providing India and several other nations waivers from sanctions for cutting its oil imports from Iran, and threatened to take legislative action to rebut the administration's reprieve to these nations, by passing tough new sanctions.
Petrol and diesel prices were cut by Rs 2 per litre each as state-owned oil companies ended a nearly two-year-long hiatus in rate revision, just hours before the general election schedule was announced.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
Imports increased by 4.5 per cent, the highest growth in the last six months as crude oil and gold shipments shot up in the month.
Investors turned cautious after India's trade deficit widened to a more than three-and-a-half-year high of $16.6 billion due to costlier crude oil imports
It is going to be a long-term proposition for India -- which has a decades-old relationship with Moscow -- to reorient its foreign policy away from Russia, the US has said, insisting that re-aligning one's approach is not like flipping a light switch.
For starters, the Iran situation is sure to have an impact on crude oil prices, as the world has little spare capacity.
The virtual meeting between the two leaders came in the midst of some disquiet in Washington over India's position on the Ukraine crisis as well as its decision to procure discounted Russian oil.
Pushing a barrel of oil back to around $100 would require a reduction of production of about two million barrels a day - a cut that would fall predominantly on Saudi Arabia.
Reliance's big-bang entry across the solar ecosystem will cut dependence on Chinese imports drastically. And Ambani's repeated emphasis that RIL's new energy foray will be 'a truly global business' points that his group is playing not just for a share of the Indian pie but to be the OEM in the larger 5,000 GW global market by 2030, points out Shailesh Dobhal.
Rajapaksa said China indicated that it would help Sri Lanka, while adding that "usually they don't like" lending out more money to cover earlier debt payments.
OPEC hopes lower fuel prices will stimulate more demand in the long run
China came in second with 29 billion dirhams at 12 per cent, followed by the US which contributed eight per cent to the total imports with a value of 18.7 billion dirhams. Germany and Japan scored 12 billion dirhams and 11 billion dirhams of imports values, respectively.
Chances are any such disruption will not occur on the major shipping lanes but on some edge of the ocean between India and China. Even if there is no actual disruption, the costs of averting one can be punitive. The setting for this is provided by the energy shortage both countries face, says Subhomoy Bhattacharjee.
Economic boom in countries like India and China and unrest in other parts of the globe are some of the important factors.
India's merchandise exports in February shrank for the 15th straight month on continued weak demand from Europe, the South Asian nation's biggest market.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
India will catch up with China's growth at 7 per cent during 2016-17, the World Bank has forecast, saying India's economy has recovered in the wake of the economic reform measures taken by the new Indian government, falling oil prices and lower interest rates.
Russian oil supplies to India will continue to flow unhindered and suppliers will come up with ways to sidestep secondary sanctions, a Russian official told Business Standard.
Taking a dig at China, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Sunday said 'some irresponsible nations' with their narrow partisan interests and hegemonic tendencies are coming up with wrong definitions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
As a measure to pre-empt dumping from China, the government has slapped restrictions on imports of specific steel items used widely in the automobile, oil and construction industries.
According to HSBC, India's current account deficit is expected to narrow from 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2014 to 0.6 per cent in 2015.
India is currently the world's fourth-largest oil consumer after the United States, China and Japan
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
Given that India will get a huge part of its oil supplies from Iran through its government-owned oil PSUs, any unwelcome shocks in global crude rates could be absorbed well enough.
EAM Jaishankar's mission is aimed at strengthening India's strategic autonomy in a complex international environment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Oil imports are a third of India's total import bill.
The prospect of further falls in remittances is a hindrance for the Reserve Bank of India, as it seeks to bullet-proof the economy against sudden capital outflows
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
'No matter how severe sanctions the UN security council imposes on North Korea, the impact of the sanctions would depend on how faithfully they are enforced by China,' says Dr Rajaram Panda.
As it signed its first oil trade deal with Nepal ending India's monopoly over fuel supplies, China on Wednesday expressed readiness for "friendly" talks with India to stabilise the landlocked country, reeling under acute fuel shortage due to a blockade of border points with India.
A fall in the rupee could boost exports. But the flip side of the equation is that a weaker rupee could stoke some inflation
India, desperate to trim a gaping current account deficit, took a slew of measures last year to curb demand for bullion
Exim Bank pointed out that recent performance of the manufacturing sector in India is indicative of an underlying inertia.
Growing for the third consecutive month, the country's exports rose marginally by 0.67 per cent year-on-year to $27.93 billion in February even as trade deficit widened to $12.62 billion, according to official data released on Monday.
